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Imminent Change Around the Corner

Omer B. Abu Haraz

The security arrangements chapter is the cornerstone of any peace agreement. Without the successful and timely implementation of the security arrangements, the whole peace efforts fall apart.

In the recent history of Sudan, three peace agreements were ratified and signed The first two went well, the third is larking on the security arrangements implementations. The first was the Addis Ababa agreement which was signed by President Numeiri and Major General Joseph Lagu in 1972, General Lago led a military insurgence in Sudan in the mid-sixties of last century against the military regime of May 1969 (969 -1985), Lago’s army was known by Ananya (snake poison). The important Demonization, Disarmament, and Reintegration (DDR) article were successfully implemented one month after signing. The majority of Ananya troops were re-integrated into the national army, the rest were re-integrated into the police force and civil service. The agreement held perfectly well for ten years when real prevailed in South Sudan. In 1982 General Numeiri breached the agreement by abolishing the federal governance of South Sudan as one entity and re-instating the old three provinces of South Sudan – Equatoria, Upper Nile, and Bahr El-Gazal.

As a result of breaching the 1972 agreement, Col.John Garang defected from his Bohr garrison in 1983 and established The Sudan People Liberation Army Movement (SPLA/M). SPLA led a fierce armed struggle in South Sudan for 22 years capturing many areas and towns in South Sudan. The 22-year of civil war resulted in heavy casualties and destruction.

In January 2005 the partners and friends of the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD)in East Africa managed to broker the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) which stopped the protracted 22 years of wars in South Sudan. The CPA stipulated a 6 and half years transitional period. with South Sudan as a federal state in a united Sudan. Col. John Garang was appointed first vice president of Sudan. After only 2 weeks of appointment, John Garang was killed in a planned air-crash of his plane coming from Uganda after meeting with Ugandan President Museveni. It was a weird calculated assassination of a leader who had the charisma to be the President of a united Sudan. He could have changed the history of Sudan for the better.

He received an unprecedented warm welcome from millions of northerners and southerners in Khartoum. After his killing, the incumbent Salva Kiir succeeded him as the first vice president of Sudan.

The CPA did not include the DDR article because it granted in one of its articles the South Sudan citizens the right to secede in a general plebiscite after the elapse of the 6 and a half transition. The plebiscite of July 2011 led to the secession of South Sudan as a sovereign state and Kiir became President of South Sudan to date.

A third peace agreement was signed in Juba on October 3, 2020, with equivocal articles on security arrangements and controversial protocols on areas of Sudan which never threatened the peace of Sudan. Those were the so-called Tracks annexed to the Juba Agreement which included North, Central, and east of Sudan. The inclusion of those tracks to be more damaging than their absence.

The security arrangements were supposed to start implementation two months after the ratification. Till now and after 16 months the DDR process is in stalemate, The delay, which becomes detrimental to the peace of Sudan is due to:

  • Lack of funds to meet the costly DDR process.
  • Lack of statistics about the numbers of the troops by the armed struggle fronts. This was worsened by the news that some armed struggle fronts started a process of recruiting new troops to raise their share in power and wealth sharing.
  • The coup of October 25, 202 aggravated the situation, especially the financial when the international community stopped the flow of financial assistance.
  • The deterioration of the economy is heading to collapse.
  • The growing resentment and denouncing of the October coup by big rallies in the streets of the capital and the big cities in Sudan.
  • Resurfacing of military insurgencies in the west and north Darfur which could be a harbinger to an all-out civil war in Darfur enhanced by the threat of a fled of heavy armament from Libya and exodus fighters from the fragile governance in Tchad, Central African Republic, and Boko Haram Movement.
  • Blockage of the two main lifelines of the eastern and northern Sudan.

So, the above seven points if not amicably resolved, the future of Sudan will be at stake.

Finally, I see a ruthless autocratic military rule in Sudan is around the corner.

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