Catastrophic Loop-Hole Ahead

Omer B. Abu Haraz

The prevailing political conditions in Sudan are complex, precarious, and confusing. The conventional wisdom of “If you are not confused, you are misinformed” describes the state of any analyst who is trying to predict what will happen next.

The complexity and danger are results of internal and external elements working in opposing directions. The complexity is bolstered by a dreadful and speedy deterioration in the economy.

Internal Elements:

Fall of the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) as incubators of the December 2018 revolution and the rise of the Resistance Committees (RCs) as a new incubator of a new revolution. RCs are solid resilient and diehards of youth who succeeded in mobilizing millions to take to streets in well-organized rallies and demonstrations. RC’s ultimate objective is the complete absence of the military from the political arena and a transition to full-fledged democratic civilian rule in a new transitional period for at least three years followed by general elections. RCs are leftists clandestinely directed by the Communist party.

As a result of the emergence of the RCs, the rightest spectrum ar Armed Struggle Movements, the Sudanese Islamic Movement (incubator of the ousted Salvation regime), Umma Party, The Original Unionist Democratic Party (DUP) which was part of the native administration leaders, the Islamic Popular Congress Party all opted for forming a bloc supporting the military against the RCs.

The other FFC parties are in complete disarray. Are the Unionist Alliance, the Sudanese Congress Party, Baath Party, the Republican party, and Nassiristes are in ambivalent vision. They are now a third moderate bloc nearer o the RCs but disagreeing with RCs in their relentless sharp approaches and slogans.

The unfortunate and untimely coup of October 25, 2021, left the country without a government and Prime Minister for 4 months to date. This absence of government led to the unprecedented rise in crimes – organized and isolated. Now Khartoum which is one of the safest towns in Africa became unsafe full of gangsters threatening the peace and safety of citizens. It also led to the deterioration of basic services – power, water, and healthcare.

The fragile non-inclusive Juba Peace Agreement with its annexation of tracks of areas living in peace started to backfire in Darfur, East, and North. Tribal deadly conflicts re-kindled in many areas. The East tribes blocked the lifeline between the port and the center and closed only one port. The Northern State citizens blocked the highway between Sudan and Egypt.

The negative collective effect of the above-mentioned five elements is bolstered by the speedy deterioration of the economy and the plummeting of the national currency value which pushed more than 70% of the population below the poverty line. Soon those people under the poverty line will join the RCs in the streets but in different and more dreadful slogans turning the whole arena to Hunger Revolution which is in most cases very violent.

External Elements:

International economic assistance immediately stopped after the coup of 25th October aggravating the economic deterioration many-fold.

Resurfacing of regional and international interests and intervention on local affairs in opposing directions drove a wedge of mistrust between the incumbent rulers.

NATO and Russia stand-off after the invasion of Ukraine will have an after-effect which will spill over to Sudan, especially after the visit of General Daglo to Russia. Russia still dreams of having a foothold in the Red Sea which is a Red Line to America, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.

So, internally and externally Sudan is now a lame-duck to an internal major change in governance which will be extremely supported by one of the regional or international axes.

To our military or civilian leaders, I say, the dreadful arena of Sudan is not a joke, please rise tall and be united at a minimum to circumvent an imminent catastrophic loophole.

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