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A Lurching Government!

By: Consultant/Engineer Omer Al-Bakri Abu Haraz

The article was written a month before the start of the war in Sudan

A very alarming part of the periodical report of the Central Bank of Sudan (CBOS) about the fiscal performance of 2022 is that the deficit in the trade balance reached a record of US$6.7 billion not recorded in the last ten years. The immediate symptom of this disease is a sharp reduction in the value of the national currency. This deficit is simply that we imported goods for about US$11.3 billion and exported only US$4.6 billion. Imported goods are consumed or in warehouses. The deficit US$6.7 billion was paid or must be paid to supplier by dollars outside the official banking system owned by the dollar dealers. They will be chasing the pound and acquiring it at any rate. This will directly lead to a dramatic reduction in its value. Some analysts forecast that it will hit the threshold of SDG900 to a dollar by the end of 2023.
Depending in this official declaration of a US$6.7 billion deficit in trade balance the Secretary-General of the UN mentioned in his recent periodical report that the Sudanese currency value will show a big drop in the months to come.
The Sudanese politicians in present precarious impasse are unaware of the gravity of the deteriorating economic conditions. Strong or weak economy is a major pillar in the stability of any society.
Strong economy guarantees safe cruising level after passing turbulence whereas weak economy prolongs cruising in turbulent unsafe levels. Even if the turbulence pain stability passed a safe transitional period will be doubtful.
The protracted turbulence since the 25th October 2021 coup created a dreadful animosity between the civilian components. The major blocs are created – Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC-1) is supported by mediating international mechanisms: Tripartite and the Quadruple. The other FFC-2 is supported by the military component. This resulted in a complex and complicated hard-to-solve equation. On one side of the equation the military component yielded to the international pressure by signing a Framework Agreement with FFC-1 although their vested interest is not fully with it. They started calling for the enlargement of the Framework Agreement signatories to include all or a sizeable number of the elements of FFC-2. FFC-1 which became a bloc of only four parties is trying to acquire an unfounded right to choose which elements of FFC-2 to be part of the Framework Agreement.
This led to creation of a third bloc of the Communist, Baath and Arab National parties. The three are the main driving forces of the streets demonstrations.
FFC-1 is targeting two of the FFC-2 which are Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) of Dr. Jibril and Minnawi respectively. They are targeting the two movements because they will be part of the transitional government as stipulated in the Juba Peace Agreement of October 2020. The presence of the two leaders of JEM and SLM will be as excuse for FFC-1 to fulfill their vested interest of being members of the transitional government in direct contradiction to the slogans of the revolutionaries of forming non-partisan transitional governance.
So it is clear that what is impeding the process of forming civilian transitional government is the vested interests of the military component and FFC-1.
So, any transitional government formed under the two vested interests will not hold for long because it will be lurching in vested interests and deteriorating economy.

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