Trump threatens Cuba again: Possible scenarios

In the midst of the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, US President Donald Trump announced late last week that they would soon turn their attention to Cuba and seize the island “almost immediately.” Trump also signed a new executive order imposing additional sanctions on the island, further increasing the pressure on the country.

Cuba’s Response to the Threats

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez responded immediately to the US threats. He wrote on social media that “the US president is escalating his threats of military aggression against Cuba to dangerous and unprecedented levels”. He added that “the international community must recognize this and decide with the American people whether such an extreme criminal act will be allowed.”

“No aggressor, no matter how powerful, can prevail in Cuba. They will face a people determined to defend their sovereignty and independence over every inch of their national territory,” the president declared. During a speech at an international solidarity meeting with Cuba at the convention center on May 2, the president affirmed that “every Cuban man and woman has a rifle, every Cuban man and woman has a defensive position, and they have a duty to fulfill in defending the homeland, the revolution, and socialism.”

Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla also criticized the new coercive measures imposed by US President Donald Trump. He described them as “disgusting and absurd.”

He further explained that these measures are a response to the mobilization of Cubans and their support for the defense of the homeland. In this context, more than six million people have signed the leadership’s call for mobilization and formal defense.

Rodríguez Parrilla also noted that the announcement of these measures coincided with International Workers’ Day, celebrated on May 1.

US Military Activity around Cuba

Despite the new sanctions, the United States has begun military activity around Cuba. US Department of Defense officials had previously indicated that they were planning a possible military operation. The FLEX2026 military exercises held in late April may have served as a preparatory phase for such operations. It’s worth noting that numerous US military assets were deployed near Cuba during these exercises.

According to the US Navy and the US Southern Command’s 4th Fleet, the exercises lasted seven days, from April 24 to 30. It took place in Key West, the southernmost point of Florida.

Furthermore, these exercises combined artificial intelligence, unmanned systems, and conventional naval forces in an integrated environment. The goal was to accelerate the application of realistic operational capabilities in complex maritime scenarios.

Earlier, on April 16, one of these aircraft flew over the island, including areas near Havana and the southern coast. Based on its flight path, this mission appeared to be a reconnaissance operation. A few days later, another MQ-4C drone was spotted north of the island, in the Gulf of Mexico, confirming the continuation of these operations. These platforms are complemented by specialized aircraft such as the RC-135 Rivet Joint electronic reconnaissance aircraft and the P-8 Poseidon, used for maritime surveillance and anti-submarine warfare. More recently, the presence of the E-2D Advanced Hawkeye early warning aircraft, capable of coordinating air and sea operations in real time, has also been reported, along with MH-60R Seahawk helicopters.

Thus, these assets collectively form a multi-domain surveillance environment encompassing advanced air, sea, and digital capabilities.

The FLEX2026 exercises also included ground-based unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), even those operated by civilian contractors. This, in turn, demonstrates the increasing integration between the military and technology sectors.

Washington Monitors the Situation

According to official information from the US Navy, these maneuvers provide training on the “full chain of operations.” This includes detecting, tracking, and intercepting targets (in this case, vessels involved in drug trafficking). The stated objective of these exercises is to combat threats such as transnational organized crime and enhance surveillance of the vast Caribbean region.

From a naval perspective, the presence of the littoral combat ship USS Wichita reinforces the maritime dimension of the deployment. This aligns with previous US unit movements in the Caribbean region since late 2015. In other words, the United States is constantly monitoring the situation in Cuba using increasingly sophisticated means.

The State of Cuban Forces

Although the Cuban armed forces are considered among the most combat-ready in the region, two things must be acknowledged. First, the country lacks modern weapons systems. Second, its combat experience gained previously in African countries is somewhat outdated.

Shortages of fuel and various supplies affect logistics and mobility. There is also no military presence on the island from friendly nations that could provide a “defensive umbrella” for the country. Although John F. Kennedy promised not to attack Cuba during negotiations on behalf of the United States during the Cuban Missile Crisis, Trump has clearly refused to honor any previous promises.

The Iranian Factor

As long as Trump is preoccupied with the Strait of Hormuz and Iran, he may refrain from any adventures against Cuba. However, this situation could change at any moment.

Given his bitter experience with Iran, the Pentagon would likely begin by launching strikes using drones and cruise missiles from a distance. The United States is unlikely to cause massive chaos and confusion, but civilian casualties would follow.

Unable to reach US military bases in Florida and elsewhere, Havana would likely be forced to respond disproportionately. This would likely involve targeting the US naval base at Guantanamo Bay. Havana currently possesses some resources to inflict damage there.

Russia’s Position

Russia has affirmed its full support for the island. She condemned the blackmail and threats from US President Donald Trump after he announced his desire to control the island.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Moscow would provide Cuba with all possible political and diplomatic support. She called for a diplomatic solution to the tensions with Washington.

For his part, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated that Russia does not intend to withdraw from the Western Hemisphere, regardless of what is said in Washington. He emphasized that Havana is a priority of Russian foreign policy.

He said, “Russia does not intend to leave the Western Hemisphere, no matter what is said in Washington. There is a prevailing obsession there with the idea of ​​excluding Russia and China from this region.”

He described Cuba as a partner of particular importance to Moscow. Ryabkov affirmed that “betraying the island of freedom” is absolutely out of the question, and that ensuring its energy security remains a top priority for Russia.

He added that it is still too early to talk about the next steps. However, he clarified that Russian support is not limited to the recent oil shipment that arrived on the island from Russia. Ryabkov noted that the illegality of the US embargo against Cuba is now clear to many within the international community.

Brown land Report