Dr. Maimuna Said Adam Abu Ruqab
Yesterday, I addressed this topic from the perspective of what is happening on the ground in our western neighbor Chad. Today, I turn the compass eastward toward Ethiopia, the other neighbor that is no longer far from the flames of chaos but has become at its very heart. The grinding battles between the Ethiopian army and the forces of the Tigray region, along with the resulting political and security turmoil, raise an urgent question: Has the spell backfired on the sorcerer? Has the chaos that was managed outside the borders begun to rebound inward, threatening the stability and legitimacy of the state?
Ethiopia, long presented as a rising regional power in the Horn of Africa, finds itself today mired in a deeply rooted and complex internal conflict that smolders and then flares up, having transcended being merely an armed rebellion to become a structural crisis affecting the very cohesion of the state itself. The war with Tigray was not just a military confrontation, but revealed the fragility of ethnic and political balances and the failure of the state project to accommodate diversity within a comprehensive national contract. With the extension of the conflict and the multiplication of its parties, Ethiopian territory will become an open theater for settling regional and international scores.
In days past, Sudan was never a source of threat to Ethiopia; on the contrary, Sudanese hands extended with goodness and support in many historical moments, politically and humanely. However, the scene changed dramatically following the outbreak of the April war in Sudan, where some Ethiopian areas turned into a supply artery for the rebellion, whether through armament, shelter, or logistical facilitation. Those in charge of these policies thought that fire could be ignited within the neighbor’s borders, and that chaos was a tool that could be employed without rebounding on its makers.
But experiences, both old and new, prove that rebellion knows no principles and recognizes no borders. Whoever opens the door to it today will find themselves tomorrow besieged by it inside their own home. Security lapses, the spread of weapons, and the normalization of violence as a means to achieve political gains are all elements that inevitably turn against everyone. The chaos and rebellion that have been supplied in Sudan are nothing but seeds planted today to be harvested tomorrow against others.
The most dangerous thing Ethiopia faces today is not only the Tigray rebellion, but the erosion of state prestige and the decline of its legitimacy in the eyes of its citizens. It is gradually losing its ability to remain as a unified entity. With the expansion of the conflict zone, the danger of total collapse becomes a viable possibility, not merely a theoretical scenario.
Would it not have been more appropriate for neighboring countries, foremost among them Ethiopia, to adopt a regional security strategy based on respecting state sovereignty and not fueling internal conflicts? Would it not have been better to work on preventing collapse rather than investing in it, and on fortifying the legitimacy of states rather than undermining it? Regional security is indivisible, and any disruption in one state quickly extends to its neighbors, especially in a fragile space like the Horn of Africa.
Today, with the flames approaching everyone’s doors, there is no longer room for betting on chaos. Let the rest take heed of what has begun to burn before it turns into a comprehensive conflagration that spares nothing and no one. History does not forgive those who ignite fire and then think they are safe from its flames.
