Omer B. Abu Haraz
It seems that Sudan is on the verge of a radical change in governance. The previous diversity in the political arena was tainted by a rainbow of ethnicity, ideology, and prejudice to a strong regional axis.
This diversity is enhanced and bolstered by an abnormal number of political parties, military insurgency groups, and tribal groups.
The numerous political bodies in their conflicting interests and ideologies impeded the safe and easy governance of the transitional period (TP), Now the TP is launching and might fall very soon.
Due to this diversity and conflict interests:
The implementation of the Juba Peace Agreement of October 2020 is sluggish.
Formation of the legislative council is becoming more difficult.
Filling the vacancies in the judicial institution is also problematic.
Ministry of Education is without a minister for almost a year
All of this is overshadowed by an unprecedented economic deterioration without a light at the end of the dark tunnel. The tunnel darkness was intensified by the recent declaration of lifting subsidies on fuel. All people reacted vigorously denouncing the decision and immediately took to the streets, blocking roads, setting fires, and sabotaging. If this situation prolongs Sudan will be a lame-duck to calculated plans of predators (local and foreign) to step in and get a stronghold of the lame-duck and killing the TP and aborting the democratic transformation.
The precarious situation will be created by controlled creative chaos that obliges the proponents of democratic civilian rule to opt for Plan (B). Plan (B) will start with a unique military coup which will state in its first declaration that they don’t intend to stay in power for more than the formation of a civilian government with full authority to rule in a short period of 2 – 3 years before holding general elections.
Parties will be banned for one year after which they will be allowed to work according to a binding act.
The coup leaders will announce that they will form a military command council working inside the army H.Q. as a watchdog to the protection of the civilian government in its performance to fulfill the demands and slogans of the December 2018 revolution. People will accept the change after being in hardships, anxiety, lack of security and safety, and uncertainty since the success of the revolution and the ousting of the autocratic rule of the Salvation regime.
This scenario is wishful thinking and a dream of many.
To go deep in this dream all incumbent elements of the present hybrid rule – military and civilian, must entertain the idea of a national dialogue on the foreign policies of a new Sudan leading to a binding consensus on this issue. External forces are set to create a new Sudan of democracy, stability, and affluence. It is only wise and pragmatic to admit that the world is divided into two axes. Staying in the middle proved to be non-productive and futile.
Main points to be addressed and resolved in the following roadmap:
Maintaining special good fraternal relations with Egypt and Ethiopia.
Leaning to the axis of the Western community especially America which genuinely gave helping hands to the revolution,
Special focus and appreciation to the generous help offered by UK, France, Germany, Norway, and the EU.
Maintaining and revitalization the good historic relations with Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Leaders of both countries are enthusiastically willing to deliver Sudan from its present deteriorations certain on certain and acceptable conditions which will touch the sovereignty of Sudan.
Conditional normalization of relations with Israel that guarantees a separate and recognized state for Palestine.
Without this consensus, Sudan will disintegrate.