Five More Questions on what had Happened in Guinea – Conakry?
By Mekki ELMOGRABI
Press Writer on African Affairs
elmograbi@gmail.com
1\ What will happen after the coup?
Most likely, there will be national and regional efforts to approve the commander of the special forces, Colonel Mamady Doumbouya as a temporary president. It will not be a big issue that Mamady is the person who led the coup because they will set for him some conditions. For example, the military council should organize elections and must be committed to lead the transitional period towards democratic transformation. There is another solution for the situation which is the Egyptian scenario by choosing another national icon, not Mamady, the head of the supreme court or a similar position to lead the transition, and then Mamady to retire from the military service to prepare himself for the presidential race. Here is another question, will AU and ECOWAS refuse this deal? If AU or ECOWAS refuses this compromise, then Guinea might fall into chaos and the two organizations will be responsible for the results.
2\ What are the expected economic impacts?
If the newcomers to the power agreement with the international community on how to pass the situation there will be no serious damage to the Guinean economy.
Currently, there is no sign that the new “de facto government” headed by General Mamady has any intention to challenge the international community. It might be slow in its response but it will be – by the end of the day – very cooperative.
3\ What is the role of ECOWAS?
ECOWAS here – in this case – is Nigeria; other players are very busy with their affairs. Because other francophone countries are extremely exhausted with their internal problems and the threats of terrorism, Nigeria now is almost alone in practicing its influence.
4\ What is the role of France?
No doubt that France will not lose anything with regime change in the francophone area in Africa. Without any further explanation or deep analysis, there is a very simple reason behind that; always, the newcomers are more loyal to France than the previous governments because they need the buy their legitimacy from the international community. France will deal with them directly and also as a broker to secure for them the acceptance of other big players.
5\ Who is next? What country will join the African “coup belt”?
I think the next country that will join “the African coup belt” will be from East or Central Africa and not from West Africa.
It seems that the western media is giving more attention to the Horn of Africa and the campaign against the governments of Ethiopia, Eritrea, and South Sudan. The western accusations against these governments are getting stronger. it is easy to detect that; when the think tanks and organizations in the west start to discuss the possibility of regime change that means something is coming. The latest coup was in Chad, which is in the Central Africa region. Yet, the Central Africa Republic (CAR), with its strong ties with Russia, became a threat to the western influence in Africa. It might be targeted.
