Omer B. Abu Haraz
Skepticism, anxiety, and dread are now dominating the feelings of many people in Sudan. Many see that chaos, bloodshed, and anarchy are looming on the horizon of Sudan. This feeling is created by the dreadful speed of hostile rhetoric and widening gaps between all players of the Transitional governance. The civilian component of the revolution is in complete disarray. The incubator of the revolution – The Forces of Freedom and Change(FFC) are split into more than two factions. The Sudanese Professional Association(SPA) has long split in two, one led by the communist party and the other by unionists. Before splitting, The SPA led the revolution and change. A new FFC body was announced last week involving all signatories of the Juba Agreement, October 2020, which includes the two main armed struggle movements, The Darfur Justice and Equality Movement(JEM), and the Sudan Liberation Movement(SLM), Minawi faction, plus leaders and other tracks – North East and Center.
This faction of FFC accuses the incumbent FFC parties of kidnapping the revolution and excluding the other FFC parties and groups. The 4 are – Umma Party, Sudan Congress Party, Unionist Alliance, and Baath Party – (FFC G4).
They call for dissolving the government and forming a new inclusive one. East Sudan is under siege by the Bija group and tribes led by Tirik who closed the only Port in Sudan and Blocked the highway between Port Sudan and Khartoum.
The Port is congested and other parts of Sudan are facing shortages in flour, oil, medicine, sugar, and other commodities. The nascent FFC and Bija leader are aligning with the Military partner of the revolution. Hostility in rhetoric between the Military namely General Burhan and General Dagalowith the FFC group of four escalated in rising tempos.
The President of the Sovereign Council General Burhan sided with the new FFC in openly calling for the dissolution of the current government and forming a new inclusive one to have the new FFC on board. Dissolving the incumbent government is categorically rejected by the G4 of the FFC.
The stand-off continues, making the picture gloomy.
One of the only two exits can break the deadlock – reconciliation between all FFC’s and forming an inclusive government or a Coup.
Reconciliation under the prevailing enmity between civilian components together with the loss of confidence between the G4 FFC forces and the Military makes reconciliation impossible.
I find myself inclined to believe Sudan will never slip into the chaos of some countries of our region because the Armed Forces of Sudan are coherent, patriotic, and strong.
So the second exit will be the safest way out this time the coup will be different. Top and Medium level officers are fully aware of the populace taking to the streets and opposing any form of Military rule. They are also aware of the Internation Community’s rejection of any impediment to the full transition to Democratic rule.
So the expected coup leaders will be genuine in their intervention to safeguard the country from any form of anarchy and at the onset of the success of the coup they will stay in the Army H.Q. in the form of a High Military Council(HMC) to protect and observe the safety of a short transitional period followed by clean and transparent General Election. They will form a totally Civilian Sovereign Council and a Council of Ministers of non-partisan patriotic technocrats with specific time-tabled duties based on fulfilling the urgent needs of the citizens, alleviating the hardships, reforming the economy, and availing peace and security of all citizens.
This will be acceptable internationally and internally. It will be similar to the Turkish style of rule.