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Harbingers of the Change

Omer B. Abu Haraz

Harbingers of an inevitable radical change in the governance of Sudan are appearing on the new horizon. The country will be taken to the brink of anarchy, at which point the logical and pragmatic change dominates. The change this time will come from nationalistic, ideologically free elements who have the tools for a radical and timely change. In the expected change all present players in the arena- military or civilians will forcibly disappear behind bars or underground. The cost of change will be high but limited and short-lived.

It will be a week of bloodshed, dreadful streets, and anarchy, after which the blown-up fragments start falling and will be arranged in an orderly manner that suits the plans of change-makers. That is exactly the essence of the plans of the Creative Chaos which was initiated by G.W. Bush the ex-president of America. He was addressing the issue of how to tame the leaders of the rich Middle East countries who are jeopardizing the plans of protecting the national security of America.

The harbingers of the change are created by:

  • The widening gap between the civilian component and the military.
  • The decision of the revolution civilian incubator. The incubator is now divided into two groups at loggerheads. One is controlling the activities in the streets. This is led by the Association of Sudanese Professionals (ASP) which is the legal body of the Trade Union of Professional before being dissolved and banned by the ousted salvation regime. ASP is supported and bolstered by very effective Adhoc groups called Resistance Committees (RC) actively present in all parts of the capital and other by towns. ASP and RC are well-organized and disciplined. They proved to be the only driving force of the millions who took and are taking to the streets. ASP and RC are now the kings of street masses. They managed to oust the strong 30-years in the power of the salvation regime after painstaking, peaceful unrelenting 4-month demonstrations. ASP and RC form the steadfast care of the Forces of Freedom and Change ((FFC) which led to the shaking and downfall of the ousted regime.
  • The other division of FFC called the charter group was created after the Juba Peace Agreement (JPA) of October 2020. It is primarily composed of the Armed Struggle Movements of Darfur, Blue Nile, Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) established by late Dr. John Garang in North and South Sudan. Two from struggle groups are siding with the first division of FFC – Al-Hilu in South Kordofan and Abdulwahid Nour in Darfur. This division of FFC – Charter has little or no influence on the streets. They are supporting the military components. Other signatories of the Juba Agreement representing the tracks of East, Middle, and North are also supporting the military because they don’t have any influence in the popular movement of the streets. So lack of popular support of this division and the widening gap between the original FFC and the military component were two of the other reasons which led to the coup of October 25th.
  • The widening gap turned to serious animosity between the two camps.
  • The unequivocal support of the international community to the first division of FFC (ASP, RC, and other parties) in their struggle to go all the way in a full-fledged democratic transition after 18 months.
  • Stopping the flow of assistance from the World Bank, America, and the EU will add to the gravity of the dwindling economic situation in Sudan.
  • The rattling of saber of sanctions by the American Congress against those who are impeding the safe transition to democracy in Sudan adds to the pressure on the military.
  • The open hostile rhetoric of General Burhan in the military function to troops against the involvement of some western diplomats in inciting civilian groups.
  • Failure of PM Hamdok to form a government after almost two months of absence of the most important executive body and the expected failure even after forming a government.

All of the above elements form the harbingers of an inevitable change in the whole governance of Sudan.

The coming will be leaning to the West.

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