Omer B. Abu Haraz
Four days ago P.M. Dr. Abdalla Hamdok brandished his last card of abandoning the transitional scene. The card of resignation. The scene is gloomy and open to all options.
Features of the scene are:
- Programmed and protracted mass demonstrations in the streets of the national capital and big cities in the country: the frequency of demonstrations are increasingly becoming weekly. The demonstrations since the coup of 25th October 2021 are organized and staged by clandestine leaders of the Resistance Committees (RC) in more than 100 residential areas of the capital.
- The original incubator of the revolution – The Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC)is in disarray and their role in organizing or staging the demonstrations withered away. A new FFC called itself FFC-Charter declared themselves stake-holders of the revolution. FFC-Charter is the signatories of the Juba Peace Agreement of October 2020. They are the leaders of the Armed Struggle Movements of Darfur and the Blue Nile known as the Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF) plus the signatories of the Four Tracks annexed to the Juba Peace Agreement – North, Centre, White Nile, and Eat. FFC-Charter plus a faction of the National Umma Party led by the President of the party, Maj. Gen. (Rtd.) Fadlalla Burma Nassir is supporting the Political Declaration signed by General Burhan, Army Chief Commander, and Dr. Abdallah Hamdok, the reinstated Prime Minister on November 21, 2021.
- The FFC – the original and the RCs are categorically against the political declaration under the strong slogans (No Partnership, No Negotiations, and No Bargaining with the military component.
- Eruption and resurfacing of the deadly confrontations in Darfur.
This time the perpetrators are claimed to be military organized invaders infiltrating from neighboring countries in the west border intending to settle in the areas of precious minerals and fertile lands. Darfur civilians started leaving their lands and villages creating a new wave of displaced people. Leaders of Darfur’s armed struggle movements failed to stop the waves of the sporadic mass killing and displacements.
- The east is still a ticking time bomb that could lead to deadly confrontations and the closing of the Sea Port and the lifeline highway from Port Sudan to Khartoum.
- The East border with Ethiopia is still fragile and brittle. Regain of the Ethiopian P.M. Abiy Ahmed to the Tigray region poses a threat to the security and safety of the eastern region of Sudan. He is accusing the military component of the revolution of Sudan of helping the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF).
- The economic deterioration in Sudan will continue after the suspension of assistance from America, the USA, the EU, IMF, and the World Bank after the coup of October 25th, 2021.
All the above features lead to an unfortunate failure of the Transitional Period and will encourage Dr. Hamdok to insist on resigning.
One of the following three scenarios will dominate:
- The radical change in the discourse of General Burhan by clearly aligning with the revolutionaries of Resistance Committees in their demands to full civilian rule in all three institutions of transitional governance – Sovereign, Executive and legislative and retaining him his high position as chairman of the Military Council to the safe transition to general elections and as a guard to the safety of the borders and people of Sudan.
- A coup by the present army top brass detains their present military component with a pledge to the people to refrain from governance in a one-year transitional period followed by an election. Exactly similar to what happened after the ousting of the May military regime of President Nimeiri in 1985, followed by elections in 1986.
- The third option will be deadly, inflicting heavy casualties and bloodshed. It is a coup by middle and law rand officers which will be completely siding with the youth revolutionaries similar to the May 1969 bloody coup of communist hardliners, leftists of the Baath party.
I personally sincerely hope General Burhan and General Himidti opt for the first scenario in a real patriotic and impartial sense of responsibility. It simply costs less which saves lives, bloodshed, and solidarity of Sudan.