Three Ticking Time Bombs

Omer B. Abu Haraz

The ongoing unrest in three areas of Sudan is very alarming and poses a real threat to the peaceful transition to democratic civilian rule. Under the current turbulence, the safe landing of the transitional governance is transparent and fair elections are doubtful.

The first area in the capital is where continuous weekly mass demonstrations are staged. Streets blocking is a form of civil disobedience that weakness the governance. The growing number of causalities and injuries after each demonstration is dreadful and weird. Weird because the perpetrator of killing and injuries is anonymous. Police forces after each demonstration issue statement that they did not use excessive force albeit casualties are reported after each demonstration.

A sad and unfortunate event happened last week when a peaceful debate conducted by the ousted Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) – the original and legitimate incubator of the December revolution – was dispersed by throwing tear gas canisters from anonymous groups. This incident will lead to a chain reaction of confrontations between the political groups in any similar political rally. Such popular debates are the cornerstone of any democratic activity. So, the national capital is definitely in a state of unrest shrouded by the absence of a government for almost two months.

The second area if Sudan poses a threat to the transitional government is the unexpected eruption of deadly attacks on civilians by organized and well-equipped military groups.

Some analysts and eye-witnesses confirm that the attacking groups are infiltrating through the western border from neighboring countries namely Tchad, Central African Republic, Niger, and Mali. They add that neither the Rapid Support Forces nor the armed struggle movements that signed the Juba Peace Agreement have any control over those groups. The analysts say that those invaders are seeking wealth and food, this is why they targeted mountains claimed to be full of gold and fertile arable lands.

To achieve their target they resort to the mass killing of civilians to force them to abandon their lands. The international community’s involvement by declaring that the situation in Darfur is alarming, the involvement will soon turn to intervention if the invaders are not pushed back by the security forces of the country.

The third area is East of Sudan when there is a tug-of-war between tribal groupings, one of the Bija tribes calling for the abolition of the East Track of Juba Peace Agreement, and the other is another sizeable group of Eastern tribes residing in Kassala State who are supporting the Eastern Track. Now the situation is calm after the suspension (not abolition) of the Eastern Track.

Things might explode at any time as there are many regional involvements in the East. The present sporadic skirmishes between armies of Sudan and Ethiopia on the Fashaga fertile area on the borders are expected to increase as soon as the Ethiopian regime of PM Abiy Ahmed regains the Tigray region.

The eastern border is a ticking time bomb.

So, the whole situation is becoming very precarious and could explode at any time if the fragile governing regime fails to reconcile soon.

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