Strategic Analytical Vision for the Future of Sudanese-Ethiopian Relations

With Regard to the visit of the Vice President of the Transitional Sovereign Council to Addis Ababa

Dr. Yassir M. Alobaid

The Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abi Ahmed, received in Addis Ababa the Vice-President of the Sudanese Transitional Sovereignty Council, Lieutenant-General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.

The Sudanese Transitional Sovereignty Council stated that its Vice-President, Lieutenant-General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, confirmed, on Saturday, during a meeting in Addis Ababa with the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abi Ahmed, the strengthening and strength of the historical relations between the two countries.

In a statement issued last Saturday evening, the council said that Daglo and Abiy discussed, during their meeting, “the course of bilateral relations between Sudan and Ethiopia and ways to support and enhance them to serve the interests of the two brotherly countries.”

The statement stated that Dagalo stressed during the meeting, which was held at the headquarters of the Ethiopian Ministry of Defense in the presence of the country’s Minister of Defense, Abraham Bly, and the Sudanese ambassador to Addis Ababa, Jamal Al-Sheikh,

The senior Sudanese official pointed out that “it has remained subject to mutual respect,” calling for “the need to raise it to levels that meet the aspirations of the peoples of the two countries.”

This is the first visit of a senior official from Sudan to neighboring Ethiopia after a year of tension in a disputed border area.

After the Vice-President of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council arrived in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian Prime Minister published a tweet in which he welcomed Dagalo, saying: “I would like to express once again my appreciation for the deep historical ties that bind our two brotherly peoples, which cannot be separated, whatever the circumstances.”

Abi continued: “We will strive to do our best to preserve and strengthen it for the good of our two countries.

The Sudanese army has fought battles with the Ethiopian forces and the groups supporting them since the announcement of its deployment on the lands of the Al-Fashqa area in November 2020, which confirms all the agreements since 1902 on its Sudanese identity.

The borderlands of Al-Fashqa are divided into three regions, namely, the Lesser Fashqa, the Greater Fashqa, and the southern regions. Its area is about two million acres and is located between three rivers, namely Setit, Atbara, and Balsam, which makes it highly fertile.

Al-Fashqa extends for a distance of 168 km with the Ethiopian border out of the total border distance of Gedaref State with Ethiopia, which is about 265 km.

As a result of military operations, Sudan regained 92% of this fertile land, months ago, for the first time in 25 years. The commander of the Sudanese army, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, pledged that his country would recover 7 border sites with Ethiopia through diplomacy, not force.

Khartoum said less than two months ago that it had lost 6 soldiers in the Al-Fashqa area, accusing “the army and Ethiopian militias” of killing them, but Addis Ababa attributed the incident to the Tigray rebels it has been fighting for more than a year in a conflict that has pushed tens of thousands of Ethiopians to seek refuge in Sudan.

Especially since many files are waiting for a solution, the most important of which is the issue of the Renaissance Dam.

Sudanese-Ethiopian relations occupy a prominent and strategic position in the Horn of Africa region and are a top priority for other neighboring countries, especially in light of the geographical and political changes taking place in the region, especially after the secession of South Sudan, which formed a new geographical reality in light of the political and security problems that both Sudan and Ethiopia suffer from, and Sudan after an agreement Juba in October 2020 turned the page of the war in Darfur and Ethiopia soon ended its war in the Taqri region… This new reality requires the two countries to search for a new strategic formula to develop their relations in light of regional and international changes that increase the importance of Sudanese-Ethiopian relations and raise their value in Strategic Balance…

From the political dimension, the two countries are of great importance to each other. Ethiopia is an influential power and has important political weight in Africa. It includes the headquarters of the United Nations Economic Commission and the headquarters of the African Union, which was hoped to play a role in unfreezing Sudan’s recent membership in the African Union after the political agreement between Lieutenant-General Al-Burhan Chairman of the Sovereign Council, and Dr. Hamdok, the former Prime Minister, but the time factor did not help the two countries, especially after the current visit of the Vice-President of the Transitional Sovereign Council, Lieutenant-General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo to the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa…

On the other hand, Ethiopia has received great acceptance in the Sudanese political and military milieu through Its connection to the effective Sudanese political force finds great acceptance from these forces, whether in power or outside it, as confirmed by its supervision and the African Union in signing the constitutional document between the civil political forces represented and the military component after the December 2019 revolution. This confirms the importance of Ethiopia in the Sudanese political conscience, which confirms Ethiopia’s desire In achieving political and security stability in Sudan throughout history because its stability comes from Sudan is the important western gateway to Ethiopia and its vital field and an important haven for Ethiopian citizens in the natural and climatic conditions as well as the conditions of war and conflict, as happened in the war of the central federal government in the Tigray region and other areas inside Ethiopia, where tens of thousands fled into Sudan in the states of Gedaref and Kassala The Sudanese are in refugee camps, and they were treated with dignity by the government and citizens, and most of their requirements were provided, including shelter, housing, facilities, etc., as well as Sudan.

More than 2 million Ethiopians are present in Ethiopian lands and cities and live in peace and security with their Sudanese brothers. So, directing the relationship strategically between the two countries from an economic point of view is to achieve rapprochement between the neighboring countries of Sudan. Ethiopia ranks second after Egypt in terms of economy and trade exchange. In the extent of the availability of the national economic potential represented in the enormous natural and economic resources that Sudan enjoys, which enables the state to move by activating its extraction and manufacture, export, and import, especially since Ethiopia is considered a large market for Sudanese agricultural or industrial products, especially since the population density, which is more than 100 Ethiopians million people, and this is a strong factor as a major consumer of various Sudanese products, and based on these advantages of the two countries, most of the policies that drive countries’ orientations and strategies do not neglect the economic dimension

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