Omer B. Abu Haraz
The political scene of Sudan these days is dreadful. It is a scene of fragmentation. The fragmentation of society into a collection of interests groups – groups and military groups.
Civilian groups are inhomogeneous formations of political parties, Resistance Committees (RCs), professional trade unions, and the Sudanese Islamic Movement of the ousted regime.
The fragments of all groups are clinging to either left or right ideologies.
The left stream of the fragments is composed of the Association of Sudanese Professionals (ASP) which is divided into two – one led by the Communist Party and the other led by the Unionist Alliance. Political parties in this stream are The Communist, Baaths, Sudanese Congress Party, the Unionist Alliance, the Nassitite Party, and the Republican Party.
The right stream is composed of Umma Party, Popular Congress Party, and the parties which participated in the era of the ousted Salvation regime.
This division in the civilian component led to a serious split in the original incubator of the December 2018 revolution – The Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC), the Council, and Chapter Groups.
On the other side of the scene is the military component. This component is also fragmented. It includes its major element which is the National Army. It is still coherent and the strongest in the component. The other element of the military component is the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) which is also strong and coherent under the full control and leadership of General Dagalo. The military component in the scene also includes two groupings at logger-head. One is the group of the armed struggle movements that signed the Juba Peace Agreement, namely the Revolutionary Front which is composed of troops from the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and troops of the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) _Minnawi faction.
Those two are aligned in harmony with National Army. Two major Armed Struggle Movement are adamantly against the military component – SPLM-N in South Kordofan led by Al-Hilu and the other SLM Abdulwahid Faction in Darfur. Both Armed Struggle Movements of South Kordofan and Darfur have coherent strong troops in occupied areas. Both movements of Al-Hilu and Abdulwahid are strongly aligned with the left stream of the revolution.
So, the scene is now a coin. On one side is the military component which is composed of the National Army, RSF, JEM, and SLM/Minnawi troops. On this side appear factions of the civilian component, namely – Umma Party, Popular Congress Party (PC), FFC – Charter, plus political groupings which supported the ousted regime in Darfur and Eastern Sudan (Sissi and Tirik).
On the other side of the coin is the RCs, FFC (Central Council), Sudanese Congress party, Unionist Alliance, Communist Party, Baath Parties, Nassirite Party, and the Republican Party.
Each side of the coin has its leverage. The military side has physical power and the other side has popular power.
The international community, especially America, is ambivalent between their vested interests and their slogans of democratic civilian governance. The vested interest of the international community always outweighs the slogans of freedom. This explains why they are shying away from unequivocally siding with the civilian side of the coin which continues to be in disarray that discourages the international community to give its full-fledged support to a component or coin side that could lead to a weak fragile rule in Sudan opening the doors wide to a dreadful scenario of a rule of fundamentalists, iron grip or complete disintegration of Sudan which will threaten the peace and security of the already fragile region.
So, they will opt for a radical change that removes all present players of the scene – military or civilians – and stage a hybrid strong rule of non-partisan civilians closely coached by a military council from the Army H.Q., and it will have the Trump Card played by the international community.