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Dreadful Impasse

Omer B. Abu Haraz

I don’t have difficulty envisaging what will happen to Sudan under the prevailing precarious situation.

Let us start by critically analyzing the present situation. In mathematics and engineering, one of the tools for solving equations is to collect data and plot than in a two-coordinate graph. In a simple equation, the two coordinates are sufficient to enable joining the points in a meaningful curve from which key points on the curve solve the problem. In Sudan’s present case the two coordinates are (X) the civilian component and (Y) the military component. The (X) is a composition of the Sudanese Professional Association, political parties, and Revolutionary Committees (RCs). The (Y) axis is a composition of the military component, the Arm Struggle Movements, and the signatories of the tracks annexed to the Juba Peace Agreement (JPA) of October 2020.

The equation is not simple and cannot be solved by 2-axes graph plotting. A dangerous third axis (Z) must be considered and its effect when plotted gives a 3-dimensional perspective which reduces the complexity many-fold.

The third element (Z-axis) is the ousted regime members. They work in clear prudent steps enhanced by their long experience in governance and by taking full advantage of the lack of experience and maturity of the elements of the original incubator of the December Revolution (the Forces of Freedom and Change “FFC”).

The only experienced element in the FFC was the Sudanese Communist Party )SCP). SCP in the early days following the ousting of the Al-Bashir regime felt the clandestine involvement of the Z-axis elements in leading some parties of the FFC to the direction of the military component. The SCP decided to withdraw from the FFC which was one of the aims of the Z-axis elements. The same Z-axis elements worked hard to push the inexperienced FFC parties to sign a ticking bomb called the Constitutional Document (CD) on August 17, 2019. Ticking-bomb because the CD formed a non-homogenous mixture between the military and civilian components immiscible in all aspects like a mixture of oil and water. Oil always remains on top. Oil is the military element. Well before the elapse of the tenure of the military in the Presidency of the Sovereign Council, the Military Council members allied with the Arm Struggle Movements as a parallel FFC and called themselves the Charter FFC.

The third axis (Z) went in calculated steps to widen the gap between the two (FFCs) until the ticking bomb detonated on the 25th of October 2021 by an unexpected military coup that dissolved the Council of Ministers and the Sovereign Hybrid Council (military and civilians).

This coupled with the evolution of a solid die-hard body i.e. The Resistance Committees RCs) of the Youth, who led since October 25, 2021, non-stop protests and popular rallies till now.

  The RCs are steadfastly calling for the return of the military to the barracks and the formation of a democratic rule. The third axis (Z) elements are now jubilant watching the dreadful fall of the December revolution. Now the gap between the two original axes (X and Y) is so wide that cannot be bridged by any means. The country is without a government for 9 months. Civil wars erupted in Darfur, the Blue Nile, and parts of the East.

However, I don’t have any difficulty envisaging what will happen next. Sudan can never go into anarchy and chaos because the Armed Forces are intact and there are good patriotic elements that will intervene at the most critical moments to put Sudan back on a track of peace and tranquility, free of all of the present players in the arena (military or civilians).

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