Conditions Are Worsening

Omer B. Abu Haraz

I am not pessimistic about the bottom line of the present political turmoil in Sudan. It cannot be chaos or anarchy. This is because I look at the glass as half-full.

It is the Armed Forces. This institution is still intact and coherent about the safety of Sudan. I am sure some patriotic gallant officers and troops will timely intervene at the onset of widespread deadly confrontations by any armed groups. The top line of the intervention could be a full-fledged coup but of different nature.

They will observe and respect the almost unanimous will of the people, especially the youth, to achieve the ultimate objective of a full transition to democratic civilian rule. They will start by imposing curfew and martial laws for a short period that puts the country back to safety and tranquility.

They will form a High Military Transitional Council (HMTC) equitably representing all army units. HMTC will be represented by its commander-in-chief in the palace as president. The HMTC will rule for only a month with the deputized heads of civil service as the ad-hoc council of ministers.

After deep consultations for one month, the HMTC will appoint a non-partisan prime minister and a limited number of ministers. The appointed council of ministers will assume all executive duties according to constitutional decrees issued by the HMTC.

Decrees that specify duties and terms of reference of the civilian governments, on top of which is the preparation for general elections to be conducted after 18 months.

The second of the duties of the appointed cabinet is the formation of a committee of lawmakers to prepare a draft of a permanent constitution to be approved and adopted by the nominated deputies after the elections. Hopefully, the approved constitution will opt for a presidential system of governance in Sudan to replace the failed parliamentary system since independence on 1956.

After the 18-month transitional period, sustained civilian democratic governance will prevail.

There is no other way out of the present turmoil in the country.

The turmoil is manifested by:

Serious disintegration of the original incubator of the December 2018 revolution – The Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) – Elements of the FFC are in complete disarray. All political parties of the FFC are split over the new partnership with the military. Some parties led by the Communist Party categorically reject the creation of a new partnership with the military. Other are adopting the safe landing strategy by forming a new modified partnership.

Another FFC group of parties that were not represented in the dissolved government after the 25th of October 2021 coup under the name of FFC – Charter aligned with the military after the coup and are now at logger-heads with FFC – The Original.

Tens of initiatives were presented, but all did not receive a consensus, including the last initiative of Sheikh El-Tayeb El-Jid, which received a warm welcome by the military, FFC-Charter, and the ousted regime relics.

Resistance Committees (RCs) are now hitting the roads independently with one slogan – Returning the Military to the barracks -.

Failure of the military to form a government for more than 9 months.

All of the above is a manifestation of the gravity of the situation in Sudan.

All of the above is shrouded by growing unrest in Darfur which claimed hundreds of lives in a deadly attack through the borders with Tchad. The relationship with Tchad started to be tense. Also East is not quiet and an alarming intervention of the Eritrean leader is creating a hostile trend in the relations with Sudan.

So, the scenario presented in the first lines of this article is the safest way out.

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