Omer Abu Haraz
It seems that the declaration of a settlement is around the corner. The tripartite mechanism is fed of waiting for a consensus on the warring political factions. This explains their use of word (settlement) and not (agreement). A settlement is a process of resolving a conflict between two parties whereas an agreement revolving conflict between many parties.
In a settlement each of the two parties gives in and relaxes some of the demands in return for some incentives. The ongoing settlement is well protected by the carrot and stick policy. Carrot of resuming the international assistance in propping the ailing economy and the stick of forceful intervention.
As known, any conflict can only be resolved by either of the three means: compromise, integration or domination.
Compromise leaves each party unsatisfied and cannot hold for long.
Integration is extremely difficult and requires high skills of the brokers and leniency from the warring parties.
When both methods – compromise and integration – fail the brokers are left with the third method which is the domination of one over the other.
Now the situation boiled down to three groups.
The first is the original incubator of December 2018 revolution i.e. The Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC), the Central Council, which includes: The Umma party, Unionist Alliance (UA), Sudan Congress Party (SCP), Baath parties, and part of Association of Sudanese Professionals (ASP).
The second group includes, the Revolutionary Front faction ld by Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) led by Minnawi, SPLM-N of Blue Nile – Malik Agar, Sudanese Islamic Movement, the ousted NCP and the wide current of nationals led by Mohamed Ali Al-Gizouli and some Sufi and native administration leaders, plus the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) led by Mawlana Mohamed Osman Al-Mirghani and his son Gaafar.
The third group includes: some of the Revolutionary Front leaders – Al-Hadi Idris, Hajar and Yassir Arman, the popular Congress Party (PCP, Reform Now led by Dr. Ghazy Salah Addeen and Hassan Riziq, Resistance Committees(RCs) led by the Communist Party. This third group is non-homogenous. They have a lot of differences but they all converge at the point of opposing the ousted Salvation Regime of NCP which imprisoned their leaders for long durations. The tripartite mechanism and the military component are trying hard with the first group to accept enlarging it by the inclusion of all factions in this group with the exception of the Communist Party.
The achievement of the enlarging process will allow the safe wading of the settlement to the shore of a new transitional period.
On the likely failure of the enlargement the tripartite mechanism will opt for a domination solution that fully meets the aspirations of the first group which will be partially enlarged by some of the factions of the third group especially the Revolutionary Front, the PCP, and some of the RCs who are not coached by the Communist Party.
The announcement of the settlement will lead to forming distinct bodies: Civilian body to assume sovereign and executive rule by appointing non-partisan prime minister and cabinet and a civilian Sovereign Council.
The other body will be a High Military Council to be a watchdog ready to intervene on the failure of the civilian rule. Transitional period will be two years followed by general elections.