The Framework Agreement Is Protected

Omer Abu – Haraz

The framework agreement ratified and signed by the representatives of the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC-1) the original incubator of the December 2018 revolution and by the military component, the partner of the aborted transitional period on October 25th, 2021 coup; which is opposed by sizable incoherent bloc composed of the Communists, Arm Struggle Movements, Umma breakaway parties, some Islamic groups, Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) led by Mawlana El-Mirghani and the ousted National Congress Party (NCP. This opposition led many analysts and people to doubt the survival of the signed framework agreement.
In my assessment the framework agreement will hold leading to a new transitional period under the governance of civilians.
It will hold because it is closely and strongly coached by resilient twin mechanisms – The Tripartite of UN, AU and IGAD and the Quadruple of America, UK, UAE and KSA.
The two mechanisms adamantly determined to keep pushing using all available tools to see the agreement yielding a stable transitional period of 2 years converging to transparent and fair general election. They are now engaged in bilateral talks with the opposing bloc elements.
Results of this started to surface up. One of the important element backed down and decided unanimously to sign the framework agreement. It is the National Umma Party led by Mubarak El-Fadil Al-Mahdi.
The two major Arm Struggle Movements Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), and Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) led by Dr. Jibril and Minnawi respectively are expected to sign in the few coming days.
So, the agreement started gaining momentum which will lead t attrition of the incoherent bloc of FFC – Democratic Wing. Some other small opposition groups will follow suit and the opposing bloc will doil down to the ousted NCP, Communists and Baath.
The success of the agreement lies on two major demands – The commitment of the military component to their repeated pledges to distance from political affairs and the complete refraining of the political parties from the transitional civilian governance. Any deviation from those elements will lead to failure of the framework agreement.
What raises the optimism of the success of the agreement is the strong and genuine welcome and support of the international community to the agreement.
All members of the Security Council commended the step of signing a framework agreement. African Union also welcomed it.
The pledge of the international community to resume the financial assistance to Sudan is a tantalizing carrot to the majority if tge Sudanese people who are now living under the hardships of sky=rocketing prices of commodities and basic services.
What concerns 90% of the Sudanese citizens is the prevalence of peace, security abd availability of basic commodities and services at prices affordable to the majority of them.
The American pressure is sustainably in place in all directions.
Two days ago the Pentagon sent warnings to the ruling component and the coming transitional governance to refrain from engaging in any form with Russia and China in projects that touch National Security of America especially in the Red Sea.
The opposing groups to the brokered settlement should be wise enough and join the defacto protected scenario of the international community otherwise they will all be by-passed without role In the calculated and protected future of Sudan