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The deterioration of the Sudanese economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns of a catastrophic contraction of the Sudanese economy by 18.3% in 2024, following the prolonged conflict entering its 11th month with no signs of a peaceful resolution. This prediction comes after a 12% economic contraction in 2023, leading to halted production and the destruction of human capital and state capabilities due to the war, according to the World Bank.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) confirmed on Sunday that the IMF expects a real GDP decline of 18.3% for Sudan in 2024. The economic contraction in Sudan is surpassing that of Syria and Yemen, which contracted by 50% over the past decade, equivalent to a 5% annual decline.

The update highlights the destruction of industrial, educational, and health infrastructure in Sudan due to the conflict, causing a collapse in economic activities, including commercial, financial, information technology, and communication services, as well as eroding the state’s capacity.

Sudan’s GDP was $34.3 billion at the end of 2021, with a marginal growth of 0.3% that year, but it has since witnessed a significant decline. Factors contributing to this decline include the military coup in October 2021, civil disturbances following the coup, and the ongoing war since April 2023.

These combined factors led to a halt in production and the destruction of human capital and state capabilities, resulting in a catastrophic economic contraction. The industry contributes 21% to the total GDP, with the agricultural sector contributing 32.7%, while the services sector provides the remaining contribution.

The war raises serious concerns about the potential for a catastrophic famine in Sudan due to disrupted agricultural activities, leading to a sharp decline in food production. Humanitarian aid is also compromised due to the ongoing violence, hindering assistance to those affected, and the collapse of infrastructure, as the war has destroyed roads and bridges.

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