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The African Union… Seeing the Elephant

Behind the News
Mohamed Wadaa

Congresswoman Sara Jacobs: The fastest way to end the war in Sudan is for the UAE to stop arming the Rapid Support Forces.
Finally: The African Union condemns foreign interventions in Sudan and emphasizes the importance of ensuring the protection of the Sudanese state, its institutions, and its people.

It was the duty of the African Union to investigate the accusations against Chad, Uganda, and the Central African Republic for their involvement in supplying the militias with Emirati weapons. These countries have contributed and continue to contribute to prolonging the war that the Union seeks to stop.

A few days after the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced an invitation to Sudanese civil and political forces and its sponsorship of a comprehensive Sudanese dialogue, the African Union’s high-level mechanism called for a preparatory conference for the Sudanese dialogue in mid-July. This confirms the conviction of many parties about the possibility of entering a political dialogue phase based on tangible expectations and clear indicators of the nearing end of the war. Especially since all parties interested in Sudanese affairs have reached one conclusion: any dialogue under the sound of gunfire is doomed to fail. This was clearly stated in the African Union’s statement issued on June 18, 2024, demanding the implementation of the Jeddah Agreement.

Indicators of the war ending militarily are likely, given the failure of the project to occupy Sudan following the scenario of a military coup. This may also be confirmed by the diminishing hope for the success of the alternative plan aimed at occupying El Fasher and forming a militia government in Darfur.

The resilience and steadfastness of El Fasher and its ability to break the siege are major indicators of the collapse of the idea of forming a state that contradicts the logic of history and geography.

The situation in N’Djamena is becoming increasingly ambiguous after the emergence of public opinion among senior Chadian army officers and political leaders opposing continued involvement in Sudan, especially after members of Congress moved to introduce a law banning the sale of weapons to the UAE. This voice will grow louder after the African Union’s statement.

US Congresswoman Sara Jacobs revealed that she had introduced a bill to ban US arms sales to the United Arab Emirates due to its funding of the war in Sudan. In a related context, Sara Jacobs tweeted, “The fastest way to end the war in Sudan is for the UAE to stop arming the Rapid Support Forces.”

This is the first time we see a clear condemnation in the aforementioned African Union statement of foreign interventions in Sudan and its emphasis on the importance of ensuring the protection of the Sudanese state, its institutions, and its people. This also represents a change in the African Union’s rhetoric towards Sudan. It was the duty of the African Union to investigate the accusations against Chad, Uganda, and the Central African Republic for participating in supplying the militias with Emirati weapons and to take the necessary measures. These countries have contributed and continue to contribute to prolonging the war that the Union seeks to stop and interfere in Sudanese affairs, which violates the African Union’s charter.

The change in the UAE’s rhetoric and the talk for the first time about a political solution means the recognition of the failure of the military coup and the possibility of seizing power by force of arms after the repeated defeats suffered by the militias. Reading the reality on the ground, the militia’s ability to achieve its war goals has become a thing of the past. These international movements will be the precursor to difficult days awaiting the UAE. If you see the donkey’s ears, you have seen the donkey.

June 22, 2024

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