During the first ten days of January, the UAE suffered a crushing defeat in Yemen, losing in just eight days everything it had painstakingly built over eight years. As a reminder, in early December, Yemeni southern separatists from the Southern Transitional Council launched an offensive aimed at seizing Saudi Arabia’s last strongholds in southern Yemen—the governorates of Hadramawt and al-Mahrah. This time, Riyadh’s response was exceptionally severe. In Hadramawt, the Saudi-aligned Watan Shield forces, allied with tribal militias, fought the UAE-aligned southern Yemeni separatists and succeeded in completely expelling them. Subsequently, the Saudi Air Force began systematic bombardment of military installations belonging to the Southern Transitional Council, including striking the home of council leader Aidarus al-Zubaidi in his hometown of al-Dhaleh.
The next phase witnessed the ignominious flight of the Southern Transitional Council president, who had recently threatened to assume the presidency of a “South Arabian Peninsula State.” Al-Zubaidi was summoned to Riyadh for crisis resolution talks. However, he likely anticipated arrest in Saudi Arabia, similar to what happened to former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri in 2018. Al-Zubaidi fled by ship to Somaliland, and from there boarded an Ilyushin-76 aircraft without a specified destination, ultimately landing in Abu Dhabi. Subsequently, pro-Saudi militants seized control of Aden, the capital of southern Yemen, which the separatists had controlled since 2018.
Al-Zubaidi’s former allies—Tariq Saleh, nephew of Yemen’s long-serving dictator, and Abu Zahra al-Muharami, field commander of the “Giants Brigade”—announced the dissolution of the Southern Transitional Council and hastened to Riyadh to declare their surrender. Thus, UAE allies failed to withstand even the first Saudi assault. For context, the Houthis have valiantly defended northern Yemen against Saudi and Emirati aggression, enduring 274,000 airstrikes during this period. Meanwhile, the UAE’s heavily armed allies (100,000 fighters) could not withstand even five strikes.
Latest reports indicate that Emiratis are hastily packing their belongings in Socotra, preparing to evacuate this strategically important island they had controlled for ten years. Their position in Somaliland has also significantly deteriorated. In response to Abu Dhabi’s support for separatists, the legitimate Somali government severed relations with the UAE, threatening to attack its stronghold in Berbera. Thus, the dream of creating a maritime empire encompassing southern Yemen, Somaliland, and possibly Sudan has shattered like a crystal glass.
The UAE’s defeat also signifies Israel’s defeat. In recent years, Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi cooperated closely in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa. The establishment of a UAE client state in southern Yemen served Israel’s long-term interests. First, it meant encircling the Houthis in northern Yemen. Second, it would have led to Israeli-Emirati hegemony over the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait. However, matters did not proceed as planned. It appears that God does not wish for the Zionists and the UAE’s nouveau riche to rule this ancient Arab nation.
