Ethiopian intelligence director in Sudan .. What’s the story
by : Mohamed Saad Kamil
In terms of Sudan’s reservation to the Ethiopian position, which some politicians interpreted as tacit support from Addis Ababa for”rapid support” after the outbreak of fighting in mid-April 2023, the relations of the two countries were clearly strained, reflected by certain positions reserved by Sudan, while the Ethiopian leadership continued to affirm its rejection of what is happening in the neighboring country, appealing to the parties to the conflict to reach a peace that normalizes the situation. Despite the course of official relations between the two countries that have remained in force, Khartoum has maintained the Ethiopian position since the start of the war, especially with the manifestations of support received by the positions of the alliance of forces of freedom and change supporting the Rapid Support militia in its war against the Sudanese army, which was also reflected by the actions of the governmental organization for the development of East Africa (IGAD) supported by Ethiopia and Kenya.
Journalist and political analyst : Amar Al-Arki
Ethiopia Addresses Sudan on Security: Sensitive Messages Between Alliances and Concerns
In a surprise visit to Port Sudan, a high-level Ethiopian delegation led by the Director of the Ethiopian National Intelligence and Security Service, Redwan Hussein, delivered an official message from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Chairman of the Sudanese Sovereign Council. The delegation included Getachew Reda, Advisor to Abiy Ahmed and former leader in the Tigray Front, who played a prominent role in the Pretoria Peace Agreement with the Ethiopian government.
Behind this brief news lies a set of messages and implications that warrant attention, not only in the context of Sudanese-Ethiopian relations but also at the level of the Horn of Africa’s balance of power.
Nature of the Visit:
A visit led by the Director of Intelligence is not read as a protocol diplomatic gesture but rather as a security message par excellence. When Ethiopia chooses to speak to Sudan through the head of its intelligence apparatus, it means the file presented in the message is not about niceties but about regional security or sensitive arrangements in a critical phase
Getachew Reda’s Participation:
Getachew Reda, Advisor to Abiy Ahmed and former leader in the Tigray Front, participated in the delegation. This could indicate a potential role for him in mediating or negotiating between different parties.
The visit raises many questions about the nature of the messages exchanged
and whether there are potential diplomatic or security moves in the region.
The Sudanese government delegation withdrew from the first meeting held by the organization on Sudan during December 2023 in Addis Ababa after submitting a request to change Kenya’s chairmanship of the IGAD Committee, for what he described as the lack of neutrality of the Kenyan president in the crisis, according to the statement of the Sudanese Foreign Ministry at the time. Ethiopian and Kenyan statements during the summit came out of a vacuum in the Sudanese leadership, calling for the imposition of a no-fly zone and the removal of heavy artillery, and then accusing Khartoum of the “IGAD” Organization of distorting the wording of the statement issued by the summit, among other accusations. Some of them attribute the Ethiopian positions interpreted by Khartoum as negative in their entirety, perhaps due to pressures in directing the Sudanese crisis, while others attribute to the issue of the Renaissance Dam some role in the tensions between the two countries, although Ethiopia is aware of the Sudanese position, which remained in support of it in its entirety, and what the Khartoum Agreement of principles in 2015 gained in the agreement of the downstream parties to the construction of the dam and the clear support of Sudanese public opinion.
Journalist and political analyst : Mohamed Hamed Nowar
I expect the discussion to be confirmations of Addis Ababa’s support for the army’s directions, sovereignty, and the fixed positions closest to the official Sudanese stance. Ethiopia has reduced or possibly halted the activities of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in its territory. However, in the shared files, I think Ethiopia’s issue now is securing the Tigray bloc from any separatist tendencies or neutralizing popular wings of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) that might engage in an alliance project with Eritrea.I anticipate that the project to repatriate Ethiopian refugees has been well-received in the estimates of the Ethiopian leadership, especially Getachew Reda’s wing, for whom this bloc was a problem.
There are crucial points in the development of relations between Sudan and Ethiopia:The UAE’s alliance with Adis Ababa
Sudan’s alliance with Egypt and, to a lesser extent, Eritrea
To navigate these crucial points, the only way is to work on mutual interests:
Sudan has a card – a port for Ethiopians on the Red Sea
Ethiopia has influence on the African Union, among other benefits
However, discussing this without considering or convincing each side’s allies is challenging. Ethiopia cannot easily abandon the UAE’s patronage, as losing that cover could expose it to economic and security problems. Sudan also needs Egyptian support.I also noticed that the most suitable option is for both sides to agree
When Ethiopia launched the Renaissance Dam project in April 2011, it did not consult either Egypt or Sudan, considering that the issue was simple and related to Ethiopian sovereignty. For its part, the Egyptian authorities know very well that the Blue Nile, on the banks of which the dam was built, is the main source that feeds the Nile River, and provides the country with the largest amount of water on which it depends heavily. Therefore, these steps of Addis Ababa were considered as an alarm bell for Cairo. To make matters worse, Ethiopia has been stalling on allowing an environmental and social impact assessment of the dam, a requirement imposed by international law when implementing such projects. In this context, the Ethiopians have repeatedly reiterated that the issue concerns the sovereignty of their country. It is known that Egypt supports Sudan in its war against the Rapid Support militia in addition to its hostility to Ethiopia, which made the visit of the Ethiopian intelligence director to Sudan surprising
the Egyptian Political analyst specializing in African affairs Nasser Zulfiqar said:
This visit comes, after a period of discord between Sudan and Ethiopia in light of Abiy Ahmed’s support for the Rapid Support forces and Hemeti’s reception in Addis Ababa at the end of 2023, which angered the Sudanese Transitional Council, in addition to the call of the Ethiopian prime minister during the IGAD summit held in Addis Ababa in July 2023, another reason for the aggravation of the crisis between the two neighbors, where Abiy Ahmed called for the imposition of an arms embargo on Sudan, a request that was primarily aimed at the Sudanese army. The visit comes 24 hours after the swearing-in of the new Sudanese Prime Minister, Kamel Idris, and notes that the head of intelligence is at the head of the Ethiopian delegation and not the foreign minister, as was the custom, which indicates that the priority of the visit is security and related to files affecting the national security of both sides. Hussein’s visit to Port Sudan came in an attempt to return the waters back to normal, in light of the need of the two countries for each other, where the aim was to strengthen security cooperation, exchange information and experiences to serve common interests. For Egypt, it is a major supporter of the Sudanese national state, and of course the Sudanese army, which is fighting the rebellion and the Armed, on the other side, the Rapid Support receives support from Addis Ababa, and the reception of Mohamed Hamdan Daglo was the biggest proof of this, and for Ethiopia it is a competition for influence with Cairo, as for the latter, the stability of Sudan is very important for Egyptian national security. During the months of the war, the ditching of Addis Ababa with quick support seemed to be a sincere Ethiopian desire that chaos would spread throughout Sudan and become a country unable to confront the schemes being tried against it in the Renaissance Dam, El fashka and other files that are directly related to Ethiopia. The past years have proved that Addis Ababa does not have the political will to conclude an agreement between the three countries, so Cairo and Khartoum rejected any negotiations that would waste time in vain. Ethiopia has recently been trying to stir up stagnant water in the Nile issue.last March, Abiy Ahmed called on Egypt and Sudan to dialogue on the issue of the Renaissance Dam, but he did not receive a response from both sides, and this was an expected reaction in light of Abiy Ahmed’s constant intransigence. Abiy Ahmed’s desire to return to negotiations or rapprochement with the two downstream countries is linked to closing all roads in his face on obtaining access to the Red Sea, especially after the firm position of Somalia and Eritrea supported by Egypt against the wishes of the Ethiopian prime minister to access the Red Sea. Egypt is considered a strategic ally of the Horn of Africa countries, especially Asmara and Mogadishu, and at the end of last year 2024 a tripartite summit was held in the Eritrean capital between the leaders of the three countries, during which they stressed the need to respect the sovereignty of states on their territories, while Egypt announces its complete rejection of the participation of any non-riparian state on the Red Sea in its security arrangements, an area
